Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Master of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
3
Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.
10.30510/psi.2022.338859.3388
Abstract
During making decisions in situations of uncertainty, people sometimes ignore some of the available information, display Keynesian Animal Spirit, and do not make rational decisions. The purpose of this paper is to measure the cycles of uncertainty from February 2017 to the end of December 2020. During this period, events such as the volatility of foreign policy had a significant impact on political uncertainty and, consequently, changed the economic decisions of society. For this purpose, considering the progress of the use of social networks and its impact on collective behavior, a part of the official Telegram media data was collected during the research period using the method of "observer-based text mining" entitled "increasing economic uncertainty" or " "Reducing economic uncertainty" was labeled. Then, using the "Support Vector Machines" algorithm, the machine learning process was completed in order to fully label the body. In the next step, the results were evaluated using historical intuition. The results of the effect of this index using the vector auto regression model on the return of the total equal weight index of capital market. The results show that the fluctuations of this index have a positive effect on capital market fluctuations.
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