Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD Student, Department of Economics, Abhar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abhar, Iran.
2
66 / 5000 Translation results Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Abhar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abhar, Iran.
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Abhar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abhar, Iran.
Abstract
the real sector of the economy in the country is one of the most important indicators that changes and forecasts of future trends are closely related to policy, market risk and market uncertainty. In this regard, in the present study, the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the forecast of future activities of the real sector of the economy in Iran during the period 1991 to 2019 have been investigated. In order to analyze the data, ARDL method was used, all analyzes were performed with the help of Eviews10 software. Findings showed that macroeconomic confidence improves the predictability of future activities of the real sector of the economy. It was also observed that macroeconomic uncertainty can affect the forecast of future activities of the real sector of the economy in the short and long term, thus confirming the hypotheses presented in the study. Uncertainty refers to factors that are likely to influence investors' financial decisions, such as future government policies, financial trends, and their potential impacts. At the macro level, uncertainty in economic policies leads to a decrease in the growth rate of employment and investment and increases in stock value fluctuations. Also, this uncertainty in economic policies affects employment and the business market (unemployment and self-employment). Thus, the labor market and employment, as an important market in the economy, are affected by uncertainty in economic policies.
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